Approximate market value of newly completed BH LSA?

[Stefano]

Hi Bearhawkers,

I am considering building a BH LSA over many years. I am aware of the cash vs time scenarios of picking a spot on the scratchbuild to quickbuild-kit spectrum. I will likely fall somewhere in the middle. That is begin as a scratchbuilder and purchase kit components and parts as needed. I can't find any comparables of BH LSA for sale to see what the market value is of a completed EAB BH LSA. Can you give me an idea of what the market value is for a newly completed BH LSA with a new engine? Assume I am using a UL350i.

[gregc]

I don’t mean to be rude but it seems like you have answered your own question. Market value is established by sales and there just aren’t enough to define a value. Anything suggested here is really just speculation. I suppose it might be slightly more informed speculation but would you really want to base a decision on it?

[Stefano]

You may be making the error of assuming that I have all of the data that you have. I am new here and haven't been around for months or years to see what any LSA's have sold for. Have you seen any BH LSA's that have sold in the last few years either via these forums or Barnstormers, for example? I know that I asked about newly-completed ones, but how about anything other than newly-completed?

If I hear you correctly, the scratchbuilders here have no idea what the market value of their 2-10 year project is likely to be worth? Not even a range? That can't be true. Let's try another approach. How much are BH LSA owners insuring their planes for?

[jaredyates]

I don't know that I've ever seen an LSA advertised for sale. It's really hard to say, perhaps $50k-$100k for the airframe, then add engine and avionics? Maybe $150k total for a Continental with a modest panel, probably $100k for the same plane with an auto or otherwise unsupported engine?

[Bcone1381]

Why do you ask?

The FAA's aircraft registry in an indicator of the LSA Supply. It shows 184 registrations with the name Bearhawk or Bear Hawk. Of 184, 22 aircraft that also includes LSA in the name. Thats not saying there are only 22 Bearhawk LSA's flying. Some LSA were certainly registered outside of my limited inquiry.

[kestrel]

Don't forget that markets change with time. Value today won't be the same in 1, 2, 4, 8 years. You said that it will be a slow build. That means there is no way of knowing value on the year you complete the project. ...or are ready to sell. I think the UL could be a fantastic engine, but I can't say what the market will think, esp. 6 years from now. If the LSA is the airplane you want, build it. If it isn't, don't.

[Stefano]

All good points. Thanks for taking a stab at the numbers Jared.

BTW, the reason I like the UL350i is that a few months back ULPower announced that they have updated the ECU map to handle 87 AKI regular automotive gas (with up to 15% ethanol). https://ulpower.com/en/news/new-ul35...n-mogas-ron-91 The UL350i is rated at 118 hp at 3300 rpm. So at lower rpm it is around the top of Bob's hp range. The weight is only 173 lbs ready to fly. So, what jumps out at me is the potential low net cost of the engine given the fuel savings of a couple bucks per gallon over 100LL. It has a 1500 hr tbo.

[whee]

I scratch built my 4-place without any idea or care what it would be worth in the end. I was building a plane for me so value didn’t matter. The scratch builders I rub shoulders with during my build felt pretty much the same.

I think the ULPower engines are pretty cool and worth a look. Probably worth noting; all the small Continentals Bob designed the LSA around will happily burn mogas, even regular 85 octane mogas.

My main concern with the UL engines is the high RPM they rate them at. 3300rpm is far above the efficiency range for a propellor unless you’re going for speed and put a short prop on. It’s akin to boat an engine rated at 575hp @ 6500rpm but the jet drive units are only rated for 4500rpm.

More food for thought; a stroker C85 puts out 106hp at its rated 2575 max rpm. At 3200rpm it’s putting out 130hp. I don’t have the dyno graph anymore but @2800rpm the engine puts out some pretty nice number. Plus, it sips fuel while in a nice 2400rpm cruise.

It seems I’m always estimating on the low side but I’d swag $75-100k for a scratch built BH LSA.

[Stefano]

I scratch built my 4-place without any idea or care what it would be worth in the end. I was building a plane for me so value didn’t matter. The scratch builders I rub shoulders with during my build felt pretty much the same.

I hope to keep the plane for awhile, but I may want to move to a 4-place later. Even if I wanted to keep it to the day I die, shit happens in life and I may be forced to sell. Not caring in the least about resale value is a luxury I can't afford.

Probably worth noting; all the small Continentals Bob designed the LSA around will happily burn mogas, even regular 85 octane mogas.

Wow. What compression ratios are those engines utilizing? My understanding was that ethanol is a no-no in Lycoming and Continental engines. Can you point me to a link that verifies that?

[zkelley2]

The engines themselves don't care about ethanol. It's everything around them. Fuel lines, carb o-rings. On some airplanes, the material of the fuel tank.

As a homebuilt you can design all the supporting systems for ethanol. The biggest hold up, even with the rotax and UL engines is the hydroscopic nature of ethanol.

[Stefano]

zkelley2 I don't want to talk about the properties of ethanol on this topic about resale value, but ethanol is not hygroscopic, it is hydrophilic and does not really pull much water from the atmosphere. That is why phase separation has not been an issue for automobiles...even those driving around in Breckenridge at 10,000 feet elevation. https://www.boatus.com/expert-advice...yths-clarified

[jaredyates]

Resale value is a tricky thing, and I think in our type of planes it is pretty well tied to inputs. A kit-built plane will typically sell for more than a non-kit, and the difference in resale is about equal to the difference in the price of the kit over just materials. Non-standard engines make for a big loss in value, and typically the difference is based on the cost of buying the plane, removing the other engine, and installing the designed-for engine. Whether or not the new buyer actually removes the engine, this seems to be reflected in the price. Avionics certainly drive the price, as do safety features like seatbelts. If resale value is the priority, build from a kit and install a Continental. You'll get the most money back when you sell it, and you'll have a fine airplane to enjoy until you do. The biggest loss will be from cases where you're convinced feature X is worth more, but nobody else agrees, and has to price based on undoing that feature. In some cases like a 406 ELT, it's not as clear what folks want, and you'll find some folks who will value the premium and some who won't.

[Stefano]

It is not a priority for me, but it is an affordability issue. I.e., having a reasonable resale value is one of my requirements on my list. The question I have to ask myself is 'can I justify paying 50 grand for a QB kit for a plane that may have a resale value of $50k?' All other costs that I bear on engine, interior, avionics, etc is not even covered...ignoring my labor, too. That question is related to resale value. But I do get your point about a scratchbuilt plane having lower resale value since the welding chops of the builder can be a life and death thing for a second owner. For example, the wing strut attachment points are of critical importance.

[whee]

I hope to keep the plane for awhile, but I may want to move to a 4-place later. Even if I wanted to keep it to the day I die, shit happens in life and I may be forced to sell. Not caring in the least about resale value is a luxury I can't afford.

Wow. What compression ratios are those engines utilizing? My understanding was that ethanol is a no-no in Lycoming and Continental engines. Can you point me to a link that verifies that?

I suppose my perspective is different. If I have sufficient disposable income to build a toy then what it’s worth in the end isn’t much of a factor. Cost of building was a significant factor for me and I pinched every penny till it bled. I never imagined BHs would we worth what they appear to be today. If value is that significant then I’d for sure do like Jared suggested and build a kit and install the normal engine.

A C-85 is 6.3:1 compression ratio. Ethanol is still a no go in the certified world due to possible compatibility issues with the fuel system. The engine doesn’t care though, I ran my C85 on E10 mogas enough to not be concerned about in a pinch.

[zkelley2]

If resale is a really big deal, go certified. It's not untill the last 10 years, maybe less that experimental has had much of any value in resale. Historically no one wanted them.
Now I don't think that'll change, just be aware of what the historical norm was.

The amount of time and effort you'll put into a scratch built, you'd be better off working a minimum wage job for the same amount of time and buying a completed airplane. You'd be money ahead. Your time has to have no value at all to approach building an airplane with a care as to its value afterwards.

That all said I can't see much more than 100k. The patrol and 4 place are going in the 120-170 range and have a lot more utility.

Also you can buy some equally capable factory LSAs for right at or even under 100k.

[Stefano]

The amount of time and effort you'll put into a scratch built, you'd be better off working a minimum wage job for the same amount of time and buying a completed airplane. You'd be money ahead. Your time has to have no value at all to approach building an airplane with a care as to its value afterwards.

I have seen that statement about substituting a minimum wage job many times before, but it doesn't make sense to me. Here's why. For those of us gainfully employed making substantially more than minimum wage, why would we want to work at McDonalds for a couple of hours per evening at minimum wage? Would they even hire someone for just a few hours a night? That type of work is toil and would be embarrassing. Building a plane is delightful, meaningful and my labor is untaxed. Building a plane brings old friends and new friends to my house for good discussion and free labor.

That all said I can't see much more than 100k. The patrol and 4 place are going in the 120-170 range and have a lot more utility.

I mentioned in the first post on this topic that I anticipate I will come in somewhere in the middle of the scratchbuild to quickbuild spectrum. I am looking at buying the spars and building the wings first. Then buying the basic fuselage with the critically important welds already done and continuing from there. That seems like a good way to reduce the manhours while still having plenty of work to do. Also, if I were buying the plane from a builder, I would pay more knowing that the spars and fuselage were purchased kit components.

How many hours would an average newbie take to build a basic BH LSA if the spars and basic fuselage are removed from the project? How much does Bob sell his engines for?

[zkelley2]

The min wage thing is just in reference to caring much at all about the value. You can't and that goes triple for scratch building.
If you are concerned with resale it's better to buy an airplane.

Plus the completion rates of scratch build is extraordinarily low. Completed airplanes have value. A pile of parts, not much.

[Bcone1381]

Quite honestly, the average new-be never finishes a scratch build Bearhawk. I was on that road once upon a time. Ask not how many hours it takes. Ask how many years or decades. The professional fabricator is a different animal. They can knock one out from scratch in less than five years.

But if you start scratch building you will succeed if you love what you’re doing, you can afford to do it without sacrificing your family, retirement, or dreams your wife may have, and you do not care about the cost.

[Frank]

As a BH LSA scratch builder, actually finishing and flying the airplane myself is only one of the possible outcomes. I do try to build and document to a level of quality that someone else might feel confident to continue the project if I had to quit. I think I'm good for another ten years maybe. But when I think about passing this project along, either as a flying airplane or not, it's more important that someone else makes good use of it rather than trying to recoup some money.

But let's face it: as a rookie one-time builder my efforts won't ever be worth much in terms of dollars. Engine and instruments will be worth more than the airframe. I'm more likely to give the whole thing away to someone eager and able, rather than try to make a buck.

Buy a factory quick-build kit and you might get some resale value.